New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli’s annual report on the MTA's finances warns of widening budget gaps through 2030, despite a balanced $21.9 billion operating budget for 2026.
The report calls for stronger cost controls, improved fare collection, increased ridership and progress in labor negotiations to protect the region’s public transportation system.
The MTA projects budget deficits of $295 million in 2027, $507 million in 2028, $707 million in 2029 and $897 million in 2030. Operating expenses are expected to rise by an average of 3.4 percent annually, while revenues are forecast to grow by 2.1 percent between 2027 and 2030.
“The MTA’s near-term financial outlook remains stable, but that could change in the coming years,” DiNapoli said. “Meeting higher savings goals, keeping a tight focus on growing ridership through safe, reliable service and working constructively with labor will help avoid a return to the fiscal instability of years past. New Yorkers need a strong MTA to keep our economy running well.”
Rising health care, pension, energy, debt service and paratransit costs account for much of the pressure. The projections include proposed fare and toll increases that have not yet been approved.
Fare evasion remains a significant concern. The MTA estimates that 49 percent of bus riders did not pay their fares in the second quarter of 2026, up from 45 percent a year earlier. The comptroller’s report estimates that reducing bus fare evasion by 10 percentage points in 2026 could generate up to $150 million in additional revenue.
The MTA reported $396 million in savings in 2025 and has set a target of $750 million by 2029. Meanwhile, negotiations with the Transport Workers Union remain unresolved following the expiration of its contract in May 2026. The authority has also lost more than 1,000 operations and maintenance workers since early 2026.
The MTA’s next steps include expanding savings initiatives, monitoring revenue collection, negotiating a labor agreement and supporting ridership growth. Federal funding decisions, tariff-related costs and potential delays in planned casino openings could further affect its finances.
Progress on these issues will influence the authority’s ability to balance future budgets while maintaining dependable service for Brooklyn and the wider New York region.
